Quick start

1. Enter current balance, monthly contribution, and your expected annual return.
2. Choose inflation and whether to index contributions to inflation.
3. Set your target retirement income (today’s dollars) and withdrawal rate.
4. Select a spending mode (never run out vs spend to $0 by age).
5. Hit Calculate and review the chart, KPIs, and the requirement vs projection gap.

How this retirement model works

The calculator projects your balance from today to retirement using your expected annual return. Contributions can optionally rise with inflation each year. At retirement, we compare your target income (in today’s dollars) with a chosen withdrawal rate to estimate the required capital and whether your projected balance leaves a buffer.

What you control

• Target income: monthly spending in retirement, shown in today’s dollars.
• Withdrawal rate: % of capital withdrawn per year in retirement. Required capital ~ annual target income ÷ withdrawal rate.
• Expected return & inflation: long-run nominal return (before inflation) and an inflation assumption. You can index contributions to inflation.
• Contributions: monthly savings until retirement; optionally indexed for purchasing power.
• Spending mode: Never run out (preserve capital in real terms) or Spend to $0 by age (draw down to zero at a chosen age).

Behind the math (step by step)

1. Accumulation: grow balance each year by the expected return; add contributions (optionally indexed by inflation).
2. Real vs nominal: targets are shown in today’s dollars; returns are entered before inflation.
3. Required capital: required = (target_income_monthly × 12) / withdrawal_rate.
4. Buffer / shortfall: at retirement, compare projected balance to required capital and compute the gap.
5. Spend-to-$0 mode: compute a withdrawal path so balance reaches zero at the chosen age (assuming your return/inflation inputs).

Interpreting the outputs

• Required capital: how much is needed to support the target income at your withdrawal rate.
• Projected balance at retirement: what your accumulation is expected to reach by your retirement start.
• Buffer (or shortfall): projected minus required. Positive = surplus; negative = gap to close.
• Sensitivity: small changes to return, inflation, or withdrawal rate can materially change the result—test nearby values.

Worked example

A 50-year-old with $200,000 invested adds $1,000/month (inflation-indexed), expects 9% p.a. returns and 2.5% inflation, and targets $5,000/month (today’s dollars). With a 6.3% withdrawal rate, the required capital is roughly annual target income ÷ 6.3%. The calculator shows the projected balance and the buffer (or shortfall) versus that requirement.

Glossary

• Withdrawal rate: % of capital drawn annually in retirement.
• Real (today's dollars): Values adjusted to remove inflation effects.
• Indexing contributions: Increasing contributions each year by inflation to maintain purchasing power.
• SG (Superannuation Guarantee): Compulsory employer super contributions, 12% of gross salary from 1 July 2025 (FY2025-26). This is the legislated final rate.
• Sequence-of-returns risk: The risk that poor returns early in retirement permanently reduce your portfolio even if long-run averages recover.

Limitations & assumptions

• Three scenarios (pessimistic/base/optimistic ±2% return) are shown; real returns vary year to year and sequence of returns matters.
• Portfolio preset returns are long-run nominal averages (Vanguard Index Chart 2024, Morningstar AU) — not guarantees. Actual returns will vary significantly year to year.
• Contributions use mid-year timing (earning approximately half a year of growth in the year contributed).
• Investment fees and super tax are modelled; super accumulation earnings taxed at 15%, and retirement-phase earnings tax-free from the later of age 60 and your retirement age. Turning 60 while still working does not start retirement phase — the 0% rate needs a condition of release, which for most people means retiring after preservation age. A partner's switch follows their own retirement age, not yours.
• Australian super contribution caps ($32,500 concessional / $130,000 non-concessional for FY2026–27) are flagged but not enforced.
• Age Pension maximum rates and every means-test threshold are indexed from today to each projection year at your Age Pension index rate (Country & Local Rules card, default 2.5%). Actual future rates and thresholds will differ, and in reality they do not move together: payment rates track CPI/PBLCI/MTAWE while thresholds track CPI, so one input for both is a simplification. Division 296's $3m/$10m thresholds are separate and are not indexed — see the Division 296 answer below.
• Gifting is modelled against the real deprivation rules: $10,000 per financial year and $30,000 across any five financial years are disregarded by the means test, and anything above those caps is a deprived asset — the money leaves your balance but stays assessable for five years from the date of each gift. Gifting continues to be modelled after age 67, because deprivation applies to pensioners too. Financial years are approximated by projection years.
• Gap-closing strategies are computed in isolation — applying one changes the inputs for the others.
• Inputs must use one consistent currency; outputs follow that currency.
• Inflation is an assumption; actual purchasing power will vary with future CPI.
• "Grow SG contributions with wage growth" (Country & Local Rules card) defaults its Real Wage Growth component to 1.2% — ASIC RG 276's benchmark nominal wage growth (3.7% p.a. at the default 2.5% inflation) for superannuation forecasts, adopted here as a default rather than a regulatory requirement, since Tepuy is not licensed and does not provide personal advice. Actual future wage growth will vary.
• Investment property loans have no term: the balance follows from the rate and the monthly repayment you enter, a blank repayment is interest-only forever, and selling costs (agent, legal, marketing — roughly $30,000–$45,000 on a $1.5M sale) are not deducted from the proceeds.
• Once both you and your partner are retired, a "Shortfall" shown here can reflect the "Keep separate draws" / "Pool retirement funds" allocation choice (Household & Partner card) rather than genuine insufficient combined wealth — the same total assets can show a shortfall under one setting and none under the other. Under "Keep separate draws", your partner's own unfunded share (if their capital runs out while yours is still funded) shows as a separate "Partner Shortfall" bar, not as "Shortfall" — the two are never the same person's gap. See "How does the Retirement Planner split spending between us once we're both retired?" below.
• Division 296 tax is modelled for balances above $3 million (Australian mode) — enacted law, Building a Stronger and Fairer Super System Act 2026, Royal Assent 13 March 2026, effective 1 July 2026. See "How does the calculator model Division 296 tax?" below for the formula and its simplifications, including that it is calculated for you only, not your partner.

FAQs

• What do the portfolio presets mean? The Portfolio Preset dropdown in the Returns & Inflation card fills in historically-grounded return assumptions based on Australian long-run averages. Conservative (~5% p.a.) is roughly 60% bonds/40% equities. Balanced (~7%) is roughly 50/50 — a common industry fund default. Growth (~8.5%) is ~70% equities. High Growth (~9.5%) is ~90% equities, similar to a diversified Australian equities index. These are nominal pre-fee returns; the Fees & Tax card applies your fee drag on top. Sources: Vanguard Index Chart 2024, Morningstar AU long-run data.
• What is the gap-closing calculator? When your projected capital falls short of your goal, the calculator shows three ways to close the gap: how much extra you'd need to save each month, how many more years you'd need to work, or what return you'd need. Each has an "Apply this" button that updates the relevant input instantly. Combining strategies is usually more realistic than one single change.
• What is the Monte Carlo simulation? After each calculation the tool runs 1,000 simulations where the annual return varies randomly each year using a log-normal distribution calibrated to your chosen portfolio's historical volatility (e.g. ~10% standard deviation for a Balanced fund). The probability of success shown is the fraction of those 1,000 paths where your money lasts the full projection horizon. The shaded band on the capital chart shows the 10th–90th percentile range across all simulations. The calculator bands that probability the same way throughout: 85% or above is Strong, 70–85% Moderate, 55–70% At Risk, and below 55% High Risk. Those are the bands the engine assigns, and the headline sentence, the coloured benchmark strip and this description all use them. The simulation is deterministic: the same inputs always produce the same probability, because the random paths are drawn from a generator seeded from your inputs rather than from the clock. That means a figure you write down, share or save can be reproduced exactly.
• What is Transition to Retirement (TTR)? TTR is an ATO-legislated strategy available to Australians aged 60–67 who are still working. You draw an income stream from your superannuation (minimum 4%, maximum 10% of account balance per year) and salary sacrifice an equivalent amount back into super. The net effect: same take-home pay, but you pay 15% contributions tax on the salary-sacrificed amount instead of your full marginal rate — typically saving thousands per year and accelerating super accumulation. Enter your gross salary and marginal rate in the Country & Local Rules card to see the estimated benefit. For the full tax-saving breakdown by income bracket, see our salary sacrifice analysis.
• What withdrawal rate should I use? There's no single right number. Higher rates increase the risk of running out; lower rates require more capital. The calculator suggests a rate based on your inputs—treat it as a starting point. When the suggested rate exceeds 4% (capital preservation) or 5% (spend-down), the label turns amber as a caution. In Australia, ABP withdrawals must meet ATO minimums: 4% at 65–74, 5% at 75–79, 6% at 80–84, 7% at 85–89, 9% at 90–94, 11% at 95–99, and 14% at 100+. These are enforced automatically.
• What are the ASFA retirement income benchmarks? The ASFA Retirement Standard is the most widely referenced benchmark in Australia. For FY2025–26: a modest single retirement requires around $32,417/year ($2,701/month); a comfortable single retirement requires around $51,630/year ($4,303/month); a comfortable couple retirement requires around $72,663/year ($6,055/month). These assume home ownership. Vintage: these are the FY2025–26 ASFA figures, one year behind the FY2026–27 tax rates, super caps and thresholds this calculator models. ASFA publishes quarterly, so confirm the current Standard before relying on the target income — the tax side of the projection is unaffected by the ASFA vintage. Use the quick-fill buttons in the Retirement Goal card to apply these directly.
• What happened to "Optimize Super Withdrawals for Age Pension"? It was removed, because it could not do what it said and measurably made things worse. The toggle capped your super withdrawal at a figure derived from the income test, on the theory that drawing less super would preserve more Age Pension. It cannot: from age 67 both your super and your non-super savings are assessable, for the assets test and — through deeming on total financial assets — the income test alike, so moving a dollar from one to the other changes neither. Worse, the cap was computed as (income threshold − deemed income − employment income) ÷ deeming rate, which is a quantity measured in dollars of assets being used to limit a withdrawal; since a withdrawal reduces your assets, and lower assets mean a higher pension, the cap pushed in the wrong direction. Measured across 240 scenarios (single and couple, a range of balances, targets and homeowner status) it raised the lifetime Age Pension in none of them and reduced it in 164, by as much as $1.14 million. The genuine version of this strategy — preserving the super of a member who is still under Age Pension age, where it really is exempt — needs levers this calculator does not have, so nothing replaces it rather than shipping a differently-wrong one. Saved and shared scenarios that carry the old setting still load; it simply has no effect.
• How does the calculator model gifting? You may give away any amount, but only $10,000 per financial year, and $30,000 across any five financial years, is disregarded by the Age Pension means test. Anything above those caps is a deprived asset: the money genuinely leaves your balance, but Centrelink keeps assessing it — and deeming income on it — for five years from the date of each gift. The calculator models all three parts, so gifting $10,000 every year does not keep buying pension: after three years the five-year cap is used up and the next two years' gifts are fully deprived. Gifting is also modelled after age 67, because the deprivation rules apply to pensioners exactly as they do before pension age. Disclosed simplification: financial years are approximated by projection years.
• When can I access my superannuation? The superannuation preservation age is 60 for anyone born after 30 June 1964. You can access super from age 60 once a condition of release is met—most commonly retiring from employment. Age Pension eligibility is separate and starts at age 67. The calculator models super access from age 60 and Age Pension from age 67 independently.
• Should I adjust contributions for inflation? If your income typically keeps pace with inflation, indexing contributions helps maintain their real value. Otherwise, leave it off and test a higher flat contribution instead.
• What is "Grow SG contributions with wage growth"? By default the auto-calculated SG contribution (from Annual Gross Salary × SG Rate) is escalated over time by inflation only, the same as a manually-typed Monthly Contributions figure. Real wages historically grow faster than prices — a productivity/"living standards" component on top of inflation — so this toggle instead grows your salary itself each year at Inflation + a Real Wage Growth assumption (default 1.2%, so 3.7% at the default 2.5% inflation), capped at the SG maximum contributions base each year, then computes SG from that grown, capped figure. The cap itself is projected forward at the same wage-growth rate rather than held at today's dollar figure — matching how the real ATO figure has actually moved historically (it is re-derived each financial year from the concessional contributions cap, which is indexed to average wages, and rose from roughly $249,000 in FY2023-24 to $270,830 in FY2026-27) — so a high earner already above the cap sees their capped contribution keep growing with wages rather than freeze at today's nominal figure. This mirrors the benchmark nominal wage growth rate (currently 3.7% p.a., updated from 4% p.a. effective 1 July 2025) that ASIC Regulatory Guide 276 sets as the default for superannuation forecasts relying on ASIC Instrument 2022/603. Tepuy Solutions does not hold an AFSL and this tool provides general information and mathematical modelling only, not personal financial advice (see our Terms) — we are not required to follow RG 276's specific methodology, but have adopted its wage-growth benchmark here as a more realistic default than a flat CPI-only projection. It only affects the SG-auto-calculated contribution; a manually-typed Monthly Contributions amount is unaffected and keeps using "Adjust contributions for inflation" instead.
• Are returns before or after inflation? The "Expected Annual Return" is before inflation. We show targets in today's dollars to keep purchasing power clear.
• Does this include taxes and fees? Australian mode: yes. The calculator models investment management fees, the 15% super concessional entry tax (with Division 293 surcharge for high earners earning over $250k), 0% retirement-phase earnings tax from the later of age 60 and your retirement age (turning 60 while still working does not start retirement phase), non-super income tax drag, CGT on unrealised non-super gains at retirement under the reform effective 1 July 2027 (the old 50% discount no longer applies — the gain is indexed for CPI using your Inflation Rate assumption, then the real gain is taxed at your marginal rate or a 30% minimum, whichever is higher), Division 296 tax on super earnings for balances above $3 million, pre-60 super withdrawal tax, and automatic enforcement of concessional and non-concessional contribution caps.
  
  Global mode: Enter your own "Tax Drag on Non-Super Earnings" percentage in the Fees & Tax card to model your local tax environment. No tax rules are assumed beyond what you enter.
  
  In both modes this is a planning estimate — specific tax outcomes depend on your personal circumstances, fund structure, and applicable legislation. Consider professional advice for material decisions.
• How does the calculator model Division 296 tax? Division 296 is enacted law (Building a Stronger and Fairer Super System Act 2026, Royal Assent 13 March 2026), effective 1 July 2026, adding an extra tax on superannuation earnings for individuals with a Total Superannuation Balance (TSB) above $3 million — a further $10 million threshold adds an additional surcharge. It is not a flat tax on the excess balance: only the proportion of your year's super earnings attributable to the portion of your balance above each threshold is taxed, at an additional 15% for the portion between $3m and $10m, and an additional 25% (15% + a further 10% surcharge) above $10m. For the vast majority of users — anyone whose balance stays under $3 million — this adds exactly $0 and changes nothing else about your projection. Above that: your year's super earnings are approximated as your balance's investment-return growth for the year (excluding contributions and withdrawals, matching how the real formula isolates "earnings"), and the calculator applies the formula above using your projected end-of-year balance. Simplifications, disclosed: the $3m/$10m thresholds are held fixed at today's dollar figures rather than indexed (the real thresholds index in $150,000 / $500,000 steps); a year with negative super earnings correctly pays no Division 296 tax that year, but the real rule also lets that negative amount carry forward to reduce a future year's bill, which this calculator does not track; and it is calculated for you only — Division 296 applies per individual, not per household, so if you have a partner and their own balance also exceeds $3 million, their own liability is not modelled here, and the "Pool retirement funds" toggle (Household & Partner card) does not change whether either of you individually owes it, only how your existing balances are drawn down (which this calculator's Division 296 figure for you does correctly reflect, since it is computed from your balance after that drawdown).
• What does the shaded band on the capital chart mean? The shaded band shows the range of projected outcomes if your actual return is 2% higher (optimistic) or 2% lower (pessimistic) than stated. This illustrates sequence-of-returns risk. The base projection (green bars) uses your exact inputs.
• Can I use any currency? Yes. Use one currency consistently for all inputs; the outputs will be in that currency.
• Can I use this as a FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early) calculator?

  Yes — while this tool is built around the Australian retirement system, it handles FIRE scenarios fully.

  • Retire before 60 (early FIRE): Set your retirement age to 40–55. The calculator draws from your non-super ("other investments") bucket first, then automatically switches to super at preservation age 60.
  • Pre-60 super tax: If you plan to access super before 60 (via a condition of release), set the Pre-60 Withdrawal Tax Rate in the Fees & Tax card. Most Australians pay 17–22% effective rate on the taxable component.
  • The 4% Rule / SWR: Set Withdrawal Rate to 4% for the classic capital-preservation target. The Monte Carlo tab shows your probability of success across 1,000 random market paths — the key sequence-of-returns test for FIRE.
  • Lean / Fat / Barista FIRE: Use the Retirement Goal card for your monthly target. For Barista FIRE, add ongoing part-time income in the Country & Local Rules card (Employment Income in retirement). For Coast FIRE, compare projections with and without future contributions.
  • No Age Pension: For FIRE users who don't plan to rely on the Age Pension (retiring at 40 won't qualify at 67 either, but some do plan for it), switch to "Global" mode to model without it — or leave Australian mode on and see what pension eligibility looks like decades later.

  The calculator does not promote any particular financial strategy. FIRE is a planning framework. These are general illustrations only — consider professional advice for early-retirement decisions.

• How does the Retirement Planner split spending between us once we're both retired? By default ("Keep separate draws"), once both of you are retired each of you is capped at your own portfolio-size share of the household target — if your own super and savings run out first, the projection will not let you draw on your partner's balance even if it is large, and will instead show a "Shortfall" for you. If your partner's own super and savings run out first instead — while yours are still funding your own share — that gap shows as a separate "Partner Shortfall" bar on the Income chart, distinct from your own "Shortfall": under "Keep separate draws" your capital never tops up theirs, so their unfunded amount needs its own bar rather than silently vanishing from the chart. The "Pool retirement funds" toggle (Household & Partner card, near the Phase 1/Phase 2 note) changes this: once your own capital is depleted, it lets the shortfall draw on your partner's surplus instead (and vice versa), limited only by what your partner actually has left. This can turn a shown "Shortfall" into a smaller one or none at all — but only when the separate-draws split would otherwise strand capital: one of you still holding money at the end while the household went short. In that case pooling puts genuinely unspent money to work, and it is the situation the toggle exists for. When both of you would run out anyway, pooling doesn't create more money — it moves spending earlier, so your shortfall tends to arrive later and in fewer years, but the total you can fund may be slightly lower because less capital stays invested. Which of those you prefer is a judgement this calculator cannot make for you: it models no mortality, so a shortfall at 92 counts the same here as one at 72. Pooling is a drawdown-order choice, not a free one — check the Shortfall bars both ways rather than assuming it can only help. It does not change the Wealth chart's Partner Superannuation/Other Savings series, which always shows partner's balance as if draws had stayed separate.