Free calculator · Australia · 2026

What growth rate does your property need to beat the ASX?

Enter your suburb's median price. Find out the exact annual return your property must deliver to outperform investing the deposit in shares. Most people are shocked by the answer.

Multiple suburbs found — pick one

not your suburb?
Deposit 20%
Time horizon 20 yrs
ASX return assumption 8.5%
Mortgage rate 6.2%

Your property needs to grow at least

per year to beat the ASX

Enter a price to calculate

Adjust the inputs above or type a suburb / price to see your personalised breakeven growth rate.

Property price

Deposit

ASX target

Monthly mortgage

Time horizon

Breakeven wealth

Historical 30yr avg vs breakeven rate needed at Feb 2026 prices (Cotality)

Sydney

5.4%

30yr avg · needs 6.6%

Melbourne

5.1%

30yr avg · needs 6.0%

Brisbane

5.1%

30yr avg · needs 6.1%

Perth

4.9%

30yr avg · needs 5.6%

Adelaide

5.2%

30yr avg · needs 5.9%

Hobart

4.4%

30yr avg · needs 5.3%

Canberra

5.0%

30yr avg · needs 5.9%

ASX 200

9.7%

incl. dividends

How this works

This calculator finds the minimum annual property growth rate your home needs to achieve so that your net equity after n years equals what you'd have built by investing your deposit in the ASX instead — with the monthly mortgage-minus-rent savings also going into shares.

It uses a cashflow-neutral model: both paths start with the same deposit and face the same monthly outgoing. The property buyer pays a mortgage; the renter invests the deposit and tops it up monthly with any savings. The breakeven rate is solved numerically.

Why the number is usually surprising: Leverage works both ways. A 20% deposit controls a 5× asset, so property doesn't need to match share returns — it just needs to grow fast enough that the leveraged gain beats the compounding portfolio. But mortgage interest costs erode that advantage significantly, especially in the early years.

Use the benchmark table above to compare your breakeven rate against what each city has historically delivered. If your required rate is above the historical average for your city, shares have had the edge — and you'd need above-average growth to justify buying purely on wealth grounds.

Want the full picture?

This tool gives you the breakeven rate. The full Tepuy model shows you the complete 30-year wealth comparison including stamp duty, CGT, negative gearing, and Monte Carlo risk scenarios.

Open the full model → Read: Should you buy or rent in every Australian city? →

Disclaimer: This calculator is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It uses simplified assumptions and does not model stamp duty, maintenance, rental income, franking credits, negative gearing, or individual tax events. Always consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions. Historical growth rates are sourced from CoreLogic/Cotality data and do not guarantee future performance.

Copied to clipboard ✓