Buy a home, or rent and invest?

Capital gains tax rate: The gain in the sale year is added to other taxable income at the bottom of the bracket your tax rate implies (37% gives $135,001) and taxed through the resident rates for that income year, plus 2% Medicare and the 30% minimum-tax top-up on the part from 1 July 2027. The brackets are held at their legislated values for every future year, so real bracket creep is not modelled. Offsets such as the low income tax offset (LITO) and the seniors and pensioners tax offset (SAPTO) are ignored, and all assets are sold in the final year as one lump. See the worked example.

This page is the Property vs Shares simulator in Live-in mode: the same engine, so the full simulator returns the same figures on the same inputs (“Open in the full simulator” carries your sliders across). What it assumes: you buy an established house in NSW to live in, paying NSW stamp duty at the general rates (no first-home concession) and $3,000 of other buying costs, with no lenders mortgage insurance; the loan is principal and interest over your time horizon, up to 30 years. Owning costs council rates of $1,800 a year plus $0.50 per $1,000 of land value (land is 40% of the price) and water of $800 a year, both rising with 2.5% inflation, building insurance at 0.3% of the building value (60% of the price) and maintenance at 1% of the property’s value. The home earns no rent and pays no land tax, and its sale at the end pays a 2% agent fee and no capital gains tax (main residence exemption). The renter pays your weekly rent, rising 3% a year, invests the deposit, stamp duty and buying costs on day one, and each year invests the difference between owning costs (repayments included) and the rent, or sells shares to pay the rent once it is the larger. The share slider is your total return, so dividends and franking credits are not modelled separately, which is conservative toward shares; the shares carry a 0.2% a year fund fee and 0.1% brokerage on every trade. When the shares are sold, capital gains tax adds the gain in the sale year to other taxable income at the bottom of the bracket your marginal rate implies (37% gives $135,001) and taxes it through the brackets, including the 1 July 2027 reform applied by date of sale. Enacted law (Acts No. 49 and 50 of 2026, including the Treasury Laws Amendment (Tax Reform No. 1) Act 2026): for individuals and trusts the 50% CGT discount is kept on the part of a gain that accrued before 1 July 2027, whenever the asset is sold, and gains accruing from 1 July 2027 use CPI cost-base indexation, with a 30% minimum tax for resident individuals that does not apply in a year they receive the Age Pension or certain other income-support payments. New residential dwellings and affordable housing keep a discount (50%, or up to 60% for affordable housing) instead of indexation and the minimum tax, with a choice of indexation where the Act allows, and a pre-CGT asset is treated as sold and reacquired on 1 July 2027 so that only the gain from that date is taxed; the Act's other conditions apply. This tool applies the 30% minimum tax in every case; by law it applies to resident individuals and not in a year the person receives the Age Pension or listed income-support payments (s 119-15), so figures for Age Pension recipients are overstated. It is not financial advice. The full simulator adds Monte Carlo risk modelling, an offset account, debt recycling and the other states, and makes every assumption above an input. If your deposit is under 20%, use the LMI Calculator to add Lenders Mortgage Insurance to your true upfront cost. Always consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.